The endgame falls into roughly 3 scenarios, the first 2 of which are shown in the following charts:
All scenarios assume that the 1,000,000 2nd vaccinations per day is already in progress.
1/22/2021 note: changes in infection growth may be due to arriving herd immunity (see "Endgame" tab) rather than to changes in human behavior.
These forecasts are based solely on reported JHU-CSSE data as of the date of the model, using the latest growth rates and derivatives -- starting with an 7-day averaging of new cases -- to project into the future. No epidemiological, political, or behavioral assumptions or models are incorporated, other than that the current observations as represented in the data are valid into the future with the exception that acceleration/decelerations in daily rates are capped at 2%. Thus, the forecasts do not attempt to account for possible changes in human behavior such as tightening or relaxing discipline, improved testing, or more accurate reporting. Those changes might be inferred in deviations of the actuals over time from the models.
For counties with low numbers of new cases (generally, below 5 per day), the projections are highly suspect as small changes in cases have an oversized impact on the growth rates. As well, counties with suddenly higher numbers of new cases will have accelerations over-estimated.
The method is as follows:
For additional details see the Methodology tab.
States nearing herd immunity (70% of population) based on highest daily new case growth rate in past week.
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